The news
AI data centers may raise carbon dioxide emissions from US power plants by 42%. The environmental group “Sierra Club” made this calculation. The news agency “Bloomberg” reported the result on 28 October. The analysis assumes that all planned data centers get built. US power plants would then emit about 2.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2030. That is 42% more than in 2025. Not all of the planned data centers exist yet.
How AI data centers could hurt the Earth
- Probable: Part of this growth comes from power plants that are not on the grid. Companies build or rent them for their own data centers. These plants emit over 460 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2030. That is about the same as Mexico’s emissions in one full year.
- Probable: Electricity from the public grid adds about 154 million tonnes by 2030. That is a 10% rise on its own.
- Probable: The group “Environmental Integrity Project” has listed 74 gas power plants. These plants are planned for data centers and do not exist yet. If they all run, they emit about 662 million tonnes of greenhouse gas a year. This study is separate, so its figure does not add to the others.
- Our estimate: The analysis says this growth wipes out 15 years of emission cuts. The growth takes only five years, from 2025 to 2030. So emissions rise again three times faster than they fell before. Which of your tasks today cannot be done without AI?
How AI data centers could help the Earth
- Probable: This forecast is not certain. Brendan Pierpont of the research firm “Energy Innovation” says this is possible but not inevitable. Turbine shortages, grid connection delays and cancelled projects can lower the figure.
- Certain: Ireland asks new data centers for 80% renewable electricity. They have six years to reach this level.
Our conclusion
For the Earth, grid electricity is better than a private gas power plant. Private plants add 460 million tonnes, about three times the grid’s share. In our view, a new data center should use renewable electricity.
We suggest that each data center publish its power source and expected emissions before building.
Tell us what you think
Should data centers use only renewable electricity? Write to us. More in Intelligence. New here? Read our Introduction.
Sources
- Bloomberg, US Data Center Buildout Risks Erasing Years of Climate Progress, 28 October 2026.
- Yahoo, AI Data Centers Could Erase 15 Years of America’s Climate Progress by 2030, 30 October 2026.
- Crypto Briefing, US data center expansion may boost emissions 42% by 2030: Sierra Club, 28 October 2026.
- Enerdata, Research identifies 74 US gas-fired projects (143 GW) aimed to power data centres, 6 July 2026 (study by the Environmental Integrity Project).
